Nairobi’s Hot Days May Continue Despite Expected El Niño Rains as Temperatures Rise Above Normal
Nairobi residents could continue experiencing unusually hot days despite forecasts of increased rainfall across Kenya, with weather experts projecting temperatures in the capital to remain between 0.5°C and 1.5°C above normal through the final months of 2026 and into early 2027.
The outlook has raised questions among residents who expected the anticipated El Niño rains to bring cooler weather after weeks of intense sunshine and uncomfortable daytime temperatures. However, meteorologists say the relationship between rainfall and temperature is more complex than many people assume.
According to weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū, seasonal climate models indicate that Nairobi could remain warmer than average during the October-to-December rainy season and beyond. The projected median temperature increase is approximately 1.1°C above normal, suggesting that the city may experience continued warmth even as rainfall increases in parts of the country.
The forecast comes as Kenya prepares for a rainy season expected to bring above-average precipitation to many regions. Yet experts caution that the presence of El Niño does not mean rain will fall continuously, nor does it guarantee that daytime temperatures will remain low.
Nairobi residents may therefore experience a mixture of hot, sunny afternoons, cloudy periods and occasional heavy showers over the coming months. The timing and distribution of rainfall will depend on several interacting climate systems, making local weather conditions difficult to predict from El Niño alone.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has also maintained its outlook for above-average rainfall across much of the country, despite reports that the rains have started later than expected in some areas. The department has warned that delayed rainfall in a particular location does not automatically mean the broader seasonal forecast has changed.
The combination of warmer temperatures and anticipated rainfall highlights an important feature of seasonal weather forecasts: a season can receive above-average rainfall overall while still experiencing long periods of sunshine and high daytime temperatures.
For Nairobi residents, this means the arrival of the short rains may not immediately bring the relief they expect from the heat. Instead, temperatures could remain relatively high between rainfall events, particularly when skies clear and sunshine becomes more intense.
